Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 32.605966 35.077599 37.754700 40.889638 44.486030 48.514958 53.416193
2025-06-08 28.375280 31.570389 35.240118 39.831878 45.521045 52.478666 61.868526
2025-06-15 26.822763 30.586281 35.102570 41.054404 48.911967 59.289737 74.741903
2025-06-22 25.123451 29.139853 34.110378 40.912551 50.335072 63.566516 84.990695
2025-06-29 23.566447 27.683726 32.899271 40.248756 50.829237 66.466648 93.735528
2025-07-06 22.098563 26.206850 31.503162 39.136080 50.462879 67.915159 100.342952
2025-07-13 21.639997 25.988972 31.729281 40.260674 53.472159 75.103097 119.439284
2025-07-20 21.119463 25.638264 31.725039 41.019753 55.980152 81.921665 140.660169
2025-07-27 20.562496 25.192989 31.540424 41.466820 58.010872 88.287208 164.085363
2025-08-03 19.859565 24.500640 30.947464 41.215545 58.804442 92.435567 184.322185
2025-08-10 19.079135 23.657797 30.080525 40.451221 58.590016 94.482236 199.905246
2025-08-17 18.361416 22.869320 29.247442 39.671910 58.249772 96.189496 215.717218
2025-08-24 17.713472 22.167779 28.528743 39.063282 58.229273 98.789386 237.710108
2025-08-31 17.014319 21.366052 27.622291 38.083512 57.408574 99.419172 253.205932
2025-09-07 16.891581 21.389381 27.962122 39.216707 60.820758 111.188923 334.093816
2025-09-14 16.477138 20.965441 27.587007 39.085310 61.674317 116.704554 395.142732
2025-09-21 15.980717 20.400482 26.963355 38.470133 61.443666 119.198832 443.605777
2025-09-28 15.421649 19.723412 26.134677 37.437808 60.216031 118.548079 468.291951
2025-10-05 15.349779 19.770019 26.450868 38.481183 63.621844 132.977658 693.946131
2025-10-12 15.207193 19.702422 26.577617 39.184613 66.384750 146.761511 1068.981122
2025-10-19 15.013091 19.547653 26.552730 39.598595 68.540354 159.608129 1753.471424
2025-10-26 14.704843 19.206174 26.204020 39.365944 69.096997 166.686188 2664.252970
2025-11-02 14.322788 18.739138 25.628708 38.657823 68.386115 168.344740 3534.685808